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汇丰集团主席庞约翰爵士中国发展论坛晚宴致辞

2006-07-07 21:24

  Sir John Bond:

  Good Evening Ladies and Gentlemen.

  I have to say it's great to be standing in an economy that's growing at seven per cent. Life's a lot more fun when an economy is growing. I'd certainly like to spend more of my time here than in economies growing at 1.5 per cent.

  I gave a speech in the US last month when I pointed out that China had been the world's largest economy for 18 out of the last 20 centuries. And there is no doubt in my mind that China will regain that position.

  I feel privileged to be here to listen to China's leaders explain their policies, and their thinking. I also think that the willingness to listen to other people's experiences shows a mature attitude which is in contrast, I am sorry to say, to many in the West.

  It is always a matter of amazement to me that some Western politicians and commentators - from countries that are no larger than one province of China - feel well qualified to tell China how it should be governed.

  It behoves all of us to understand that the challenge of governing a country of 1.3 billion people is something that nobody is qualified to speak on, except China's leaders themselves, and, I guess maybe India's.

  It seems to me that every nation needs policies to suit its own history and culture. It is arrogant in the extreme to think that there is a one-size-fits-all solution that works for everyone. And even more arrogant to think that your particular solution is the only one.

  I have nothing but admiration for the progress China has made since I first visited in 1972. The Chinese leadership has shown great skill in achieving stunning economic growth over the past 25 years while at the same time managing the change and transition that this level of growth inevitably brings.

  The development of consumer markets is an important part of this process. Because two-thirds of most economies are driven by consumer spending. China has huge potential consumer markets which will underpin economic growth both today and, even more so, tomorrow.

  Globally, HSBC sees the consumer markets of tomorrow as China, India, Brazil, Mexico; all countries that have the potential to move very rapidly up the gdp-per-capita scale. We would put China at the top of the list.

  Everywhere I go, I see tangible signs of China's progress: in the hotels, in the airports, the transport systems. And there is much more to come.

  Getting the right products in the right people's hands at the right prices is the fundamental task of a consumer economy. Putting in place the distribution systems to facilitate the creation of consumer markets is going to be hugely important in the years ahead.

  In a market, you need measures to protect consumers, but not in such a heavy-handed way as to discourage investment. Drawing the line between the interests of the consumers and the interests of the producers is a delicate task for governments and business people.

  I do not underestimate the challenges that China faces. But based on the track record over the past 25 years, I know China will meet the challenge and leapfrog the West in many areas - I think of technology and communications.

  And in the process, China has the opportunity to avoid some of the pitfalls that have snared progress elsewhere.

  The scale of the opportunity for China makes this the most important meeting that I attend every year. I am honoured to be a participant.


  庞约翰爵士:

  女士们,先生们,晚上好。

  我要说,站在经济增长速度为7%的土地上,感觉非常好。经济增长的时候,生活似乎更加有趣,到处生机勃勃,人人精神振奋。与增长速度为1.5%的国家相比,我当然更愿意多来这里。

  上个月,我在美国作过一次演讲,我指出,在过去20个世纪里, 有18个世纪,中国都是全世界最大的经济体。我深信,中国正在重新赢回这一地位。

  我非常高兴在这次会议期间,能够亲自听到中国领导人解释他们的政策和想法, 并再次看到他们愿意听取会议代表的意见。我认为,愿意倾听他人体现出一种成熟的态度,与许多西方国家形成了鲜明对比,对后者我经常不得不感到很遗憾。

  我常常感到很吃惊的是,一些西方评论家,他们国家的面积可能只有中国的一个省那么大,可他们却觉得自己有资格告诫别人应该如何治理。

  我觉得我们大家都应该知道,治理一个拥有13亿人口的国家,这样的挑战,除了中国,或许还有印度,没有其他人有这样的经验。

  我觉得每一个国家都需要适合自己历史和文化的政策。认为存在适合所有人的万能的解决方法,这样想是傲慢的。而认为自己的方法是唯一的正确之道,更是极端傲慢的。

  自从1972年我第一次到中国来以后,这些年我亲眼所见的中国的巨大发展,令我钦佩不已。过去25年来,在取得了令人震惊的经济发展的同时,中国妥善处理了高速增长往往会引发的过渡问题。

  消费者市场的发展是这一进程中的一个重要部分,因为在众多经济体中,有三分之二的经济体是由消费者的消费推动的。中国具有潜力巨大的消费者市场,这一市场,现在会,将来更会, 推动经济的发展。

  汇丰认为,未来全球的消费者市场包括中国,印度,巴西和墨西哥;也就是那些所有有潜力实现GDP快速增长的国家。在这些国家中,中国位居首位。

  在中国,无论我走到哪里,都会看到中国发展的生动例证。我坚信未来还会有更多。

  对于以消费者为主体的经济体来说,根本任务是在适当的地点将适当的产品送到适当的人手里。使销售系统各就其位,以促进消费者市场的建立,将在未来几年里变得尤为重要。

  在一个市场里,需要采取措施保护消费者,但又不能手段太重以至于影响投资热情。对于政府和商业人士来说,分清消费者的利益和生产商的利益是一项非常微妙的任务。

  我从未低估中国面临的挑战。但是根据过去25年所取得的成绩来看,我知道中国会正视挑战,并在许多领域,尤其是,技术和通讯领域,超越西方。

  在这一过程中,中国可以借鉴西方的教训,避免他们遇到过的阻碍和错误。

  中国面对的机会是如此广阔,使这一论坛成为我每年要参加的最为重要的会议。我非常荣幸能参加中国发展论坛。我再次为作为论坛的一个参与者感到荣幸。谢谢大家。

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